Ґлобальна криза і цикли економічного розвитку
Nikolai Kondratiev, a Russian economist, who had studied a huge amount of empirical material, came to a conclusion that the existence of large cycles in dynamic economic processes does not mean a disaster. N. Kondratiev identified approximate time limits for each of cycles and patterns, described two types of "long waves" — the raising and fall-down ones. Hence, he was able to predict the years of Great Depression of 1929— 1933 and its main features. The fall-down waves embrace the periods of extensive development of resources of the world periphery by the centers of industrial society; the priority of financial operations over the investments is established, the labor becomes cheaper. The fall-down waves are characterized by slow progress and development of communications technologies. A rapid technological progress and the increase of social value of knowledge, as well as the appearance of new centers of high-tech industry are characteristic of the raising wave period. The globalization of recent decades has coincided in time with a fall-down moment when cheap labor power is one of the main principles of the doctrine. This ultimately leads to serious negative social and anthropological consequences and dysfunctional changes, in education and socialization processes of individuals in particular. New Kondratiev’s wave, being a result of the global crisis, requires the replacement of the doctrine of cheap labor power by high-qualification and well-paid work, introduction of new technologies, transformation of the relationship between the global centers and peripheries.
Постійна адреса матеріалу
(2010). Ґлобальна криза і цикли економічного розвитку . Філософська думка, №2. с. 88-96.